double precision function expprob(n,excp)
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c
c     program to compute expected probability
c
c     author.....tim cohn
c     date.......9 Nov 2004
c
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       implicit none
       integer n
       double precision excp,nx,fp_z_icdf,fp_tnc_cdf,tp

         nx = n
         tp = fp_z_icdf(1.d0-excp)*sqrt(nx/(nx+1.d0))
         expprob = 1.d0 - fp_tnc_cdf(tp,nx-1.d0,0.d0)

       return
       end